The KPMG report: Wider economic benefits on a ludicrous scale

strict warning: Non-static method view::load() should not be called statically in /home/sites/transport-watch.co.uk/public_html/sites/all/modules/views/views.module on line 879.
strict warning: Declaration of views_handler_filter::options_validate() should be compatible with views_handler::options_validate($form, &$form_state) in /home/sites/transport-watch.co.uk/public_html/sites/all/modules/views/handlers/views_handler_filter.inc on line 589.
strict warning: Declaration of views_handler_filter::options_submit() should be compatible with views_handler::options_submit($form, &$form_state) in /home/sites/transport-watch.co.uk/public_html/sites/all/modules/views/handlers/views_handler_filter.inc on line 589.
strict warning: Declaration of views_handler_filter_boolean_operator::value_validate() should be compatible with views_handler_filter::value_validate($form, &$form_state) in /home/sites/transport-watch.co.uk/public_html/sites/all/modules/views/handlers/views_handler_filter_boolean_operator.inc on line 149.
strict warning: Declaration of views_plugin_row::options_validate() should be compatible with views_plugin::options_validate(&$form, &$form_state) in /home/sites/transport-watch.co.uk/public_html/sites/all/modules/views/plugins/views_plugin_row.inc on line 135.
strict warning: Declaration of views_plugin_row::options_submit() should be compatible with views_plugin::options_submit(&$form, &$form_state) in /home/sites/transport-watch.co.uk/public_html/sites/all/modules/views/plugins/views_plugin_row.inc on line 135.
strict warning: Non-static method view::load() should not be called statically in /home/sites/transport-watch.co.uk/public_html/sites/all/modules/views/views.module on line 879.
strict warning: Declaration of views_plugin_style_default::options() should be compatible with views_object::options() in /home/sites/transport-watch.co.uk/public_html/sites/all/modules/views/plugins/views_plugin_style_default.inc on line 25.

We have the extraordinary KMPG report on the Regional Impacts of HS2, dated September 2013; principle authors, Lewis Atter and Richard Threlfall. The report claims the scheme will generate benefits worth £15bn annually. The whole was presented as evidence to the Transport Committee of the House of Commons – which took it hook line and sinker.

Well, the £15bn can only arise from generated business plus commuter trips, the supply side, since most of the benefits from existing trips obviously pre-exist. Forecast generated trips amounted to 76,900 per weekday, equivalent to 24 million per year. Data for Virgin West Coast from the National Rail Passenger Survey suggests 35% may be commuting or on business. Hence, if the £15bn is to be believed, each of these generated business-plus-commuter trips would be worth close to £1,800 or £3,600 for a round trip.

To appreciate how absurd that is first note that these are generated trips. Pre-existing ones would be more valuable (perhaps twice as valuable if the same principles are applied as are applied to time values). Secondly, multiply the £1,860 by all national rail’s commuter plus business trips. They number roughly 51% of Network Rail’s 1.7bn passenger rail journeys. The sum provides over £1,500 billion, a value which is similar to the nation’s entire GDP! Double it, because the sum refers to existing trips, and get a magnificent £3 trillion per year.

If only that were true. Building a railway would then equate to undreamed of riches.

Autumn 2013

PDF:

KPMG 15 bn.pdf